Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: 9E 5354 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day 9E 5354 DTW 08:29 → GSP 10:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1561 DTW 20:05 → GSP 21:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5354 Endeavor	DTW 08:29	GSP 10:20	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 5090 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:44	GSP 18:35	17%	4%	0.9%	61%
DL 1561 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	GSP 21:47	26%	5%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON