Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	HNL 14:07	15%	4%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 03m	98%	83%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:09UA 2302	1h 51m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 16m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:57 → JFK 08:38DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	1h 25m New York	JFK 10:03 → HNL 14:43DL 636	13h 46m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 54m	93%	72%
United Details →	DTW 06:57 → SFO 09:08UA 1550	1h 37m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	12h 23m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:56 → SEA 14:51DL 728	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 16:35 → HNL 19:53DL 419	12h 57m	95%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:58 → SEA 19:46AS 313	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:49AS 268	11h 51m	70%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON