Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1043 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1043 DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 1633 DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	IAH 10:37	15%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	IAH 14:32	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 234 United	DTW 06:10	IAH 08:15	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1957 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:48	IAH 15:06	21%	8%	0.8%	66%
DL 1718 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:57	IAH 18:03	22%	5%	0.6%	68%
DL 1633 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:25	IAH 22:24	26%	5%	0.7%	81%
UA 6251 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:55	IAH 12:57	13%	4%	0.4%	87%
UA 4032 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:40	IAH 20:50	23%	5%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON