Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 5828 at 16:08, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5828 DTW 16:08 → IND 17:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5828 Republic	DTW 16:08	IND 17:33	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 4875 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:30	IND 09:50	21%	7%	1.4%	79%
DL 5095 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 22:50	IND 00:07	25%	10%	4.8%	75%
DL 5034 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 17:42	IND 19:00	32%	18%	1.9%	68%
DL 4898 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 20:35	IND 21:55	34%	15%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON