Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	JAX 10:52	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:02	JAX 17:27	13%	4%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	6h 43m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 25m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	1h 57m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	6h 30m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → JAX 15:05DL 2990	6h 40m	99%	79%
United Details →	DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa	58m Dulles	IAD 08:32 → JAX 10:42UA 2084	4h 42m	87%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 08:55 → JAX 10:22AA 1466	4h 22m	91%	77%
American Details →	DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → JAX 12:51AA 1925	5h 51m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	46m New York	JFK 19:15 → JAX 22:17DL 5123 · flown by Endeavor	5h 59m	69%	48%
American Details →	DTW 12:53 → ORD 13:15AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:15 → JAX 17:41AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	4h 48m	74%	47%
United Details →	DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 15:58 → JAX 19:27UA 1284	5h 17m	71%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON