Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 523 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 523 DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest DL 694 DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 523 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	LAX 10:20	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 634 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:50	LAX 14:35	17%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 883 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	LAX 17:33	20%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:20	LAX 20:04	24%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 694 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:59	LAX 22:46	29%	5%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 02m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	55m Phoenix	PHX 10:39 → LAX 12:10DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	84%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON