Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1487 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1487 DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2604 DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1487 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	LGA 08:47	5%	3%	1.0%	90%
YX 4376 Republic	DTW 09:10	LGA 10:57	7%	3%	1.4%	no record
DL 2589 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	LGA 11:45	10%	3%	1.2%	86%
DL 1791 Delta	DTW 08:52	LGA 10:39	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 1669 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LGA 14:03	15%	7%	1.4%	76%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 14:16	LGA 16:14	17%	8%	1.6%	56%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:48	LGA 21:47	18%	8%	1.3%	68%
DL 2603 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:50	LGA 23:40	19%	6%	1.1%	74%
DL 2602 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:02	LGA 15:53	20%	8%	1.1%	76%
DL 2604 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:59	LGA 19:50	27%	9%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON