Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1627 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1627 Delta	DTW 08:47	MEM 09:49	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1230 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	MEM 21:01	21%	4%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 12m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	5h 10m	97%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:57AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Philadelphia	PHL 10:37 → MEM 12:19AA 5040 · flown by PSA	7h 18m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	6h 49m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	51m Atlanta	ATL 15:11 → MEM 15:33DL 1700	4h 08m	72%	56%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:08UA 2302	52m Denver	DEN 11:00 → MEM 14:29UA 2789	6h 32m	66%	52%
American Details →	DTW 20:05 → CLT 22:04AA 660	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:53 → MEM 23:45AA 1372	4h 40m	57%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON