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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4044 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 4044 DTW 08:34 → MKE 08:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3675 DTW 17:41 → MKE 18:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
OO 4044 SkyWest DTW 08:34 MKE 08:54 12% 6% 0.6% no record
OO 3981 SkyWest DTW 12:34 MKE 12:52 19% 7% 0.6% no record
DL 3724 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → DTW 20:00 MKE 20:20 22% 10% 0.6% 64%
DL 1343 Delta Flight history → DTW 15:50 MKE 16:02 22% 5% 0.7% 80%
DL 3675 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → DTW 17:41 MKE 18:00 23% 9% 0.6% 63%
DL 5476 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 12:25 MKE 12:42 37% 20% 0.0% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON