tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5444 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 20:37 MSN 21:02 21% 14% 6.7% 79%
DL 5245 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 17:10 MSN 17:33 32% 11% 1.0% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681 6h 05m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648 1h 08m Boston BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic 5h 58m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599 6h 20m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:12 → MSN 12:31AA 2443 6h 31m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → DTW 08:20 → ORD 08:42AA 4013 · flown by Envoy 2h 58m Chicago ORD 11:40 → MSN 12:46AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602 1h 44m New York LGA 17:37 → MSN 19:16DL 5611 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → DTW 10:23 → ORD 10:45AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Chicago ORD 14:02 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 5h 51m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:08UA 2302 52m Denver DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368 6h 13m 66% 53%
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:01 → ORD 16:23AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 59m Chicago ORD 17:22 → MSN 18:43AA 3953 · flown by Envoy 3h 42m 50% 28%
AmericanDetails → DTW 12:53 → ORD 13:15AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 47m Chicago ORD 14:02 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 3h 21m 32% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON