Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1746 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1746 DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 1303 DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:01	MSP 07:53	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2258 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:00	MSP 09:54	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 9961 Delta	DTW 12:02	MSP 12:55	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2697 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	MSP 13:10	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2203 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:20	MSP 17:12	22%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 1303 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:06	MSP 21:00	25%	7%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON