tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 08:40, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2790 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:40 MSY 10:14 11% 2% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 08:58 → MSY 09:29DL 1424 5h 12m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 20m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02DL 1163 2h 18m Boston BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398 7h 51m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MSY 14:20DL 3157 6h 55m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45UA 3652 · flown by Republic 56m Newark EWR 08:41 → MSY 11:01UA 1527 6h 01m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:02 → MSY 15:44DL 8858 6h 13m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:00 → IAH 13:17UA 6251 · flown by Mesa 1h 45m Houston IAH 15:02 → MSY 16:32UA 2738 6h 32m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DTW 20:11 → ATL 22:16DL 2053 54m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 4h 32m 65% 47%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 1h 00m Denver DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34UA 1541 7h 02m 67% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON