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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 08:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1145 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:45 MYR 10:39 11% 4% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 36m 97% 90%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:57AA 5414 · flown by PSA 58m Philadelphia PHL 08:55 → MYR 10:54AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 4h 53m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 6h 43m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 5h 30m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DTW 10:52 → PHL 12:42AA 5876 · flown by Piedmont 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 7h 35m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → DTW 10:01 → CLT 11:56AA 2582 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 14:40 → MYR 15:53AA 1687 5h 52m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:14 → EWR 13:04UA 3706 · flown by Republic 2h 51m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 42m 98% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON