Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3440 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–57%.

Safest bet that day YX 3440 DTW 05:29 → ORD 05:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1084 DTW 17:58 → ORD 18:29 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3440 Republic	DTW 05:29	ORD 05:57	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 06:45	ORD 07:30	12%	4%	1.1%	80%
AA 4013 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 08:20	ORD 08:42	16%	3%	1.1%	93%
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:23	ORD 10:45	16%	7%	1.3%	86%
UA 1503 United	DTW 08:37	ORD 08:58	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3819 SkyWest	DTW 10:11	ORD 10:33	17%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 11:00	ORD 11:29	18%	7%	0.7%	70%
YX 3441 Republic	DTW 12:30	ORD 12:58	19%	7%	1.6%	no record
DL 2840 Delta	DTW 07:34	ORD 07:52	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2027 United	DTW 07:26	ORD 07:48	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:03	25%	8%	1.3%	78%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 12:53	ORD 13:15	26%	7%	1.7%	91%worse than usual
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	36%	15%	2.2%	71%
MQ 3947 Envoy	DTW 20:55	ORD 21:26	41%	15%	4.9%	no record
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	44%	17%	2.7%	76%worse than usual
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 16:01	ORD 16:23	47%	14%	5.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:28	ORD 16:59	49%	20%	4.7%	49%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	50%	20%	1.9%	66%worse than usual
UA 2771 United	DTW 19:16	ORD 19:49	53%	23%	1.5%	no record
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	ORD 18:29	57%	20%	2.0%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON