Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 21% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:54	PDX 10:36	10%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 913 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:04	PDX 21:48	22%	5%	0.7%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 39m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:25DL 539	8h 08m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 41m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 15m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	9h 51m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:01 → SEA 07:57DL 732	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PDX 11:41DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	100%	80%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:08UA 2302	3h 19m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 16m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 13:37 → PDX 14:48DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	9h 13m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313	52m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	61%	50%
American Details →	DTW 17:40 → PHX 19:15AA 445	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561	8h 28m	69%	40%
American Details →	DTW 16:01 → ORD 16:23AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	47m Chicago	ORD 17:10 → PDX 19:55AA 1818	6h 54m	21%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON