Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2968 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2968 DTW 07:05 → PHL 08:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1686 DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	PHL 08:41	5%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 5414 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:01	PHL 07:57	7%	4%	1.4%	100%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:10	PHL 11:46	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 11:24	PHL 13:20	9%	5%	1.5%	82%
YX 4392 Republic	DTW 14:07	PHL 16:09	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5367 PSA	DTW 19:23	PHL 21:19	16%	9%	2.0%	no record
DL 2402 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	PHL 23:16	19%	5%	1.0%	81%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:00	PHL 16:43	22%	6%	0.8%	71%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	PHL 19:25	25%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 5876 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:52	PHL 12:42	5%	0%	0.0%	95%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON