Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5842 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 5842 DTW 08:33 → PIT 09:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3875 DTW 17:48 → PIT 18:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5842 Republic	DTW 08:33	PIT 09:47	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5844 Republic	DTW 10:16	PIT 11:33	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3875 SkyWest	DTW 17:48	PIT 18:59	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 4640 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 14:25	PIT 15:40	28%	14%	1.0%	72%
DL 5369 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 22:50	PIT 00:07	33%	15%	7.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON