Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	PWM 11:55	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	PWM 16:01	13%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:57AA 5414 · flown by PSA	53m Philadelphia	PHL 08:50 → PWM 10:31AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	4h 30m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:21 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	7h 43m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	2h 13m New York	LGA 11:00 → PWM 12:32DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor	5h 32m	99%	76%
United Details →	DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa	46m Dulles	IAD 08:20 → PWM 10:07UA 3548 · flown by Republic	4h 07m	81%	76%
American Details →	DTW 11:24 → PHL 13:20AA 5480 · flown by PSA	3h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 16:54 → PWM 18:34AA 6125 · flown by Piedmont	7h 10m	100%	76%
American Details →	DTW 11:06 → DCA 12:49AA 5660 · flown by PSA	2h 02m Washington	DCA 14:51 → PWM 16:44AA 1423	5h 38m	96%	75%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	56m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → PWM 11:10AA 1744	5h 10m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m New York	JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	7h 16m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	47m New York	JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	4h 05m	74%	55%
United Details →	DTW 16:28 → ORD 16:59UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401	5h 13m	61%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON