tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3073 at 14:25, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3073 Delta DTW 14:25 RIC 16:06 12% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 4679 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 21:40 RIC 23:28 24% 9% 1.8% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:57AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 06m Philadelphia PHL 09:03 → RIC 10:27AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont 4h 26m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 6h 39m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152 6h 52m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa 1h 16m Dulles IAD 08:50 → RIC 09:55UA 4498 · flown by GoJet 3h 55m 89% 80%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:14 → EWR 13:04UA 3706 · flown by Republic 2h 21m Newark EWR 15:25 → RIC 17:08UA 3639 · flown by Republic 5h 54m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214 6h 55m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387 1h 24m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → RIC 10:36AA 5119 · flown by PSA 4h 36m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 2h 22m New York JFK 14:20 → RIC 16:19DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor 6h 05m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa 50m Dulles IAD 22:10 → RIC 23:18UA 4473 · flown by GoJet 3h 33m 72% 50%
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:04 → DFW 18:08AA 3310 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → RIC 22:57AA 3037 6h 53m 61% 32%
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:28 → ORD 16:59UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Chicago ORD 18:10 → RIC 21:27UA 1583 4h 59m 64% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON