Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 732 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 732 DTW 06:01 → SEA 07:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 313 DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 732 Delta Flight history →	DTW 06:01	SEA 07:57	10%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 316 Alaska	DTW 07:01	SEA 08:57	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 728 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:29	SEA 14:29	18%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 734 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	SEA 10:34	19%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 944 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:46	SEA 18:42	24%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 565 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:34	SEA 22:33	27%	5%	0.7%	64%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 17:31	SEA 19:33	31%	5%	0.8%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 58m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 00m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 24m	93%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON