Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1550 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1550 DTW 06:34 → SFO 08:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest DL 335 DTW 19:55 → SFO 21:56 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1550 United Flight history →	DTW 06:34	SFO 08:40	19%	4%	0.6%	61%
DL 361 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	SFO 10:27	23%	5%	0.6%	75%
DL 469 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	SFO 14:17	26%	6%	0.6%	70%
DL 442 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:17	SFO 18:14	31%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 1118 United	DTW 19:38	SFO 22:01	34%	11%	0.6%	no record
DL 335 Delta	DTW 19:55	SFO 21:56	37%	9%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	7h 09m	94%	74%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:08UA 2302	1h 13m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 07m	89%	66%
American Details →	DTW 08:20 → ORD 08:42AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → SFO 12:28AA 1851	7h 08m	84%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON