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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:17, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:13 → SJU 11:53DL 1930 6h 36m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 15m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 34m 88% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 9h 19m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:57AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 28m Philadelphia PHL 09:25 → SJU 13:19AA 614 7h 18m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa 2h 06m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 9h 43m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45UA 3652 · flown by Republic 2h 01m Newark EWR 09:46 → SJU 13:45UA 1556 7h 45m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → MIA 09:06AA 1020 2h 05m Miami MIA 11:11 → SJU 13:58AA 1613 7h 58m 97% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON