Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 698 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 698 DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2117 DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 698 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	SLC 10:21	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 935 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	SLC 14:11	19%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 8771 Delta	DTW 19:02	SLC 20:59	28%	5%	1.1%	no record
DL 765 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	SLC 19:34	30%	5%	1.3%	78%
DL 2117 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:20	SLC 22:15	33%	7%	1.0%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	58m Denver	DEN 10:45 → SLC 12:14DL 1317	5h 34m	89%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON