tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1857 Delta Flight history → DTW 09:25 SNA 11:05 19% 4% 0.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 53m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:08UA 2302 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 8h 59m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 14m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:35 → IAD 16:11UA 6190 · flown by Mesa 1h 31m Dulles IAD 17:42 → SNA 20:19UA 2319 8h 44m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:01 → SEA 07:57DL 732 2h 15m Seattle SEA 10:12 → SNA 13:02DL 1001 10h 01m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 26m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:34 → SFO 08:40UA 1550 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 12:31 → SNA 14:20UA 2441 10h 46m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:14 → EWR 13:04UA 3706 · flown by Republic 1h 37m Newark EWR 14:41 → SNA 17:37UA 2477 9h 23m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 54m Seattle SEA 19:36 → SNA 22:28DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 8h 42m 70% 54%
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:04 → DFW 18:08AA 3310 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806 7h 18m 74% 44%
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:01 → ORD 16:23AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 1h 26m Chicago ORD 17:49 → SNA 20:22AA 1179 7h 21m 72% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON