Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1850 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1850 DTW 07:05 → STL 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 737 DTW 20:05 → STL 20:53 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1850 Southwest	DTW 07:05	STL 07:53	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	STL 09:31	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:28	STL 13:05	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:45	STL 17:24	18%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 1541 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	STL 20:37	21%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 737 Southwest	DTW 20:05	STL 20:53	29%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON