Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5213 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5213 DTW 07:06 → SYR 08:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 1689 DTW 21:35 → SYR 22:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5213 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 07:06	SYR 08:34	8%	3%	0.9%	83%
DL 5533 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 11:27	SYR 12:55	9%	4%	0.8%	74%
DL 5465 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 14:24	SYR 15:52	13%	4%	0.8%	79%
DL 1689 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	SYR 22:58	25%	6%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON