Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2424 at 22:59, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2424 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:59	TVC 00:08	22%	6%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	99%	85%
American Details →	DTW 08:20 → ORD 08:42AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	5h 35m	99%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON