Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4889 at 16:05, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:05	XNA 17:29	15%	4%	1.0%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:42 → XNA 09:37DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 20m	96%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:57AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 31m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	7h 30m	100%	83%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:58AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 00m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → XNA 16:48DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 17m	99%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 09:24 → XNA 10:55AA 5327 · flown by PSA	5h 55m	93%	78%
American Details →	DTW 08:20 → ORD 08:43AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 11:41 → XNA 13:34AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 14m	100%	77%
American Details →	DTW 14:16 → LGA 16:14AA 4339 · flown by Republic	2h 12m New York	LGA 18:26 → XNA 21:20AA 4554 · flown by Republic	8h 04m	94%	75%
American Details →	DTW 16:04 → DFW 18:08AA 3310	3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:46AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 10:23 → ORD 10:45AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest	56m Chicago	ORD 11:41 → XNA 13:34AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	4h 11m	73%	56%
Delta Details →	DTW 20:11 → ATL 22:16DL 2053	47m Atlanta	ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	57%	46%
United Details →	DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302	1h 05m Denver	DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48UA 1351	6h 16m	72%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON