Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2406 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2406 Southwest	ECP 09:55	AUS 12:08	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 15:55	AUS 18:13	20%	11%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:17 → DAL 08:24WN 312	3h 37m Dallas	DAL 12:01 → AUS 13:12WN 1002	6h 55m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	6h 04m	98%	79%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 21m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	6h 29m	100%	79%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 37m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	6h 42m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 38m	98%	76%
American Details →	ECP 12:05 → DFW 14:17AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:19 → AUS 18:27AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	5h 41m	96%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 08m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	4h 20m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON