Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 4789 at 13:19, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4789 Republic	ECP 13:19	DCA 16:56	17%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	93%	81%
Southwest Details →	ECP 06:17 → DAL 08:24WN 312	2h 01m Dallas	DAL 10:25 → DCA 14:17WN 113	7h 00m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	59m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	3h 56m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 44m	96%	71%
American Details →	ECP 07:41 → DFW 10:09AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 18m	94%	68%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	4h 52m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 49m	95%	64%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378	7h 01m	99%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ECP 18:48 → ATL 21:07DL 3053	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 04m	71%	48%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	55m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	4h 01m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON