Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1859 at 13:30, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1859 Southwest	ECP 13:30	DEN 15:47	25%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:17 → DAL 08:24WN 312	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 09:59 → DEN 11:12WN 9000	5h 55m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	6h 05m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 10m	99%	78%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 34m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	6h 17m	100%	78%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 02m Houston	IAH 10:30 → DEN 11:54UA 2787	6h 24m	99%	77%
United Details →	ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 59m Houston	IAH 22:09 → DEN 23:34UA 685	7h 29m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 46m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	8h 20m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON