Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2917 at 19:55, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2917 Southwest	ECP 19:55	HOU 21:55	22%	9%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 06:17 → DAL 08:24WN 312	56m Dallas	DAL 09:20 → HOU 10:35WN 9	4h 18m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 10m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 10m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 04m	99%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON