tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1870 at 14:25, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1870 Southwest ECP 14:25 MCI 16:45 18% 7% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ECP 06:17 → DAL 08:24WN 312 1h 34m Dallas DAL 09:58 → MCI 11:44WN 2314 5h 27m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 36m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 13m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 39m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 18m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ECP 12:05 → DFW 14:17AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:10 → MCI 18:58AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 6h 53m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → MCI 18:55DL 1470 7h 17m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 02m Houston IAH 20:12 → MCI 22:12UA 1589 5h 07m 72% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON