tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3497 Republic ECP 14:11 ORD 16:58 41% 15% 4.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:08 → ORD 12:20DL 2894 6h 20m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Houston IAH 09:44 → ORD 12:38UA 2124 6h 08m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 58m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 7h 40m 94% 67%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 50m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → ORD 14:27DL 1477 6h 37m 99% 66%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:59 → ORD 14:48UA 1691 5h 48m 90% 64%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:41 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:25 → ORD 13:52AA 1285 6h 11m 93% 60%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 34m 96% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON