tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 24m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 7h 14m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 4h 50m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 56m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 13m Houston IAH 12:12 → PHL 16:30UA 2748 6h 30m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:28DL 1174 6h 41m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 5h 34m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:41 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → PHL 16:28AA 3147 7h 47m 95% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON