tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1848 at 19:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1848 Southwest ECP 19:10 STL 21:12 19% 8% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ECP 06:17 → DAL 08:24WN 312 3h 12m Dallas DAL 11:36 → STL 13:32WN 3962 7h 15m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 17m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 27m Houston IAH 11:55 → STL 14:01UA 2042 7h 31m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ECP 11:40 → IAH 13:40UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 51m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 54m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 50m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 15m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 5h 17m 94% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 01m Houston IAH 20:11 → STL 22:18UA 1528 5h 13m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON