Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1741 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1741 Delta Flight history →	ELP 06:00	ATL 11:10	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history →	ELP 14:25	ATL 19:42	19%	4%	0.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 11:55 → ATL 15:16UA 4079 · flown by Mesa	7h 31m	99%	77%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	1h 18m Denver	DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	6h 23m	92%	76%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ATL 15:33AA 1008	6h 28m	92%	69%
American Details →	ELP 07:38 → ORD 11:43AA 4006 · flown by Envoy	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 12:57 → ATL 16:11AA 616	6h 33m	100%	68%
American Details →	ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 09:45 → ATL 17:15AA 753	9h 14m	96%	61%
American Details →	ELP 09:52 → DFW 12:50AA 1365	3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:05 → ATL 19:30AA 2403	7h 38m	96%	59%
United Details →	ELP 12:35 → IAH 15:40UA 4002 · flown by Mesa	2h 25m Houston	IAH 18:05 → ATL 21:09UA 2240	6h 34m	93%	58%
Frontier Details →	ELP 20:14 → LAS 21:08F9 3449	2h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 +1F9 2428	8h 45m	93%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON