Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1872 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 1872 ELP 05:45 → DEN 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3391 ELP 16:15 → DEN 18:11 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1872 Southwest	ELP 05:45	DEN 07:39	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 724 United Flight history →	ELP 07:00	DEN 08:53	12%	4%	0.7%	92%
F9 4418 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 19:24	DEN 21:26	35%	14%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	35%	14%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 3391 Southwest	ELP 16:15	DEN 18:11	45%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON