Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2319 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2319 ELP 06:53 → DFW 09:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1681 ELP 16:20 → DFW 19:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2319 American	ELP 06:53	DFW 09:47	13%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 2029 American Flight history →	ELP 07:05	DFW 10:00	15%	7%	1.4%	87%
AA 3272 American	ELP 07:53	DFW 10:48	16%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1365 American Flight history →	ELP 09:52	DFW 12:50	16%	8%	1.1%	78%
MQ 3769 Envoy	ELP 13:59	DFW 16:56	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1658 American	ELP 12:12	DFW 15:07	27%	9%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3981 Envoy	ELP 17:29	DFW 20:18	27%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	ELP 16:20	DFW 19:25	38%	12%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON