Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4910 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4910 ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2596 ELP 20:25 → LAX 21:32 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4910 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 06:01	LAX 07:14	6%	4%	0.6%	96%
WN 1466 Southwest	ELP 08:10	LAX 09:21	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4973 SkyWest	ELP 12:01	LAX 13:15	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6361 SkyWest	ELP 18:12	LAX 19:26	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2596 Southwest	ELP 20:25	LAX 21:32	37%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON