tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3484 Republic ELP 08:40 ORD 12:55 15% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 4006 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ELP 07:38 ORD 11:43 16% 5% 0.8% 100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 58m Houston IAH 09:44 → ORD 12:38UA 2124 5h 53m 91% 73%
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 58m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 7h 45m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa 1h 57m Houston IAH 11:59 → ORD 14:48UA 1691 6h 48m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → ORD 14:27DL 1477 7h 27m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 8h 28m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 22m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 95% 65%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:02 → IAH 17:15UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 10m Houston IAH 20:25 → ORD 23:15UA 787 8h 13m 95% 61%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 09:29 → ORD 15:37AA 2998 8h 36m 96% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:50 → ORD 21:31UA 1411 5h 59m 71% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON