Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1646 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1646 ELP 06:35 → PHX 07:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2875 ELP 19:15 → PHX 19:50 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1646 Southwest	ELP 06:35	PHX 07:05	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 5008 SkyWest	ELP 06:06	PHX 06:39	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1876 Southwest	ELP 11:35	PHX 12:05	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4889 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 11:02	PHX 11:36	18%	7%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
OO 4971 SkyWest	ELP 15:45	PHX 16:24	19%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 3484 Southwest	ELP 16:05	PHX 16:34	29%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3853 Southwest	ELP 21:35	PHX 22:05	35%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 2875 American	ELP 19:15	PHX 19:50	42%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON