tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 235 at 10:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 235 Southwest ELP 10:10 SAN 11:09 19% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:38 → IAH 08:47UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 13m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 43m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 22m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 95% 69%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:01 → IAH 11:10UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 07m Houston IAH 14:17 → SAN 15:39UA 1114 8h 38m 94% 66%
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 9h 32m 91% 58%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → SAN 14:29AA 1769 8h 24m 96% 57%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:52 → DFW 12:50AA 1365 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:48 → SAN 15:58AA 2361 7h 06m 95% 56%
AmericanDetails → ELP 11:02 → PHX 11:36AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Phoenix PHX 14:07 → SAN 15:33AA 1951 5h 31m 91% 56%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 2h 42m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 14m 93% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:01 → IAH 11:10UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 6h 20m 70% 50%
UnitedDetails → ELP 12:30 → IAH 15:46UA 4002 · flown by Mesa 46m Houston IAH 16:32 → SAN 18:05UA 2798 6h 35m 71% 48%
FrontierDetails → ELP 19:24 → DEN 21:26F9 4418 1h 01m Denver DEN 22:27 → SAN 00:00 +1F9 2711 5h 36m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON