tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, QX 2417 at 19:01, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2417 Horizon ELP 19:01 SEA 21:44 35% 8% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 9h 50m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058 7h 35m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → ELP 11:02 → PHX 11:36AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Phoenix PHX 14:32 → SEA 17:47AA 3934 · flown by Envoy 7h 45m 91% 67%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:38 → IAH 08:47UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 16m Houston IAH 12:03 → SEA 14:34UA 2228 9h 56m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 10h 34m 92% 62%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:17 → SEA 14:31AA 757 8h 26m 93% 58%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:52 → DFW 12:50AA 1365 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727 7h 55m 93% 54%
AmericanDetails → ELP 16:20 → DFW 19:25AA 1681 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 9h 37m 95% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:01 → IAH 11:10UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 53m Houston IAH 12:03 → SEA 14:34UA 2228 7h 33m 75% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON