tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1885 Southwest EUG 17:10 LAS 19:16 27% 13% 0.6% no record
G4 1634 Allegiant EUG 22:13 LAS 00:20 29% 18% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 27m Portland PDX 07:33 → LAS 09:47AS 1467 4h 27m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:21AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Portland PDX 09:04 → LAS 11:17AS 1337 5h 57m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 45m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 58m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → LAS 10:13UA 1627 4h 13m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Seattle SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905 6h 10m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 01m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Seattle SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949 5h 25m 93% 63%
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:39 → SLC 19:40DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662 7h 01m 100% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON