Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2762 United	EUG 14:11	ORD 20:14	43%	26%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Eugene). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	54m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	5h 53m	98%	81%
United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	58m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	93%	73%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	6h 46m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637	8h 28m	99%	60%
United Details →	EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 10:23 → ORD 16:41UA 2827	8h 41m	97%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:56 → ORD 17:50AS 579	6h 05m	69%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON