Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3040 EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3006 EUG 12:45 → PDX 13:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3040 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 05:20	PDX 06:21	5%	3%	0.9%	94%
AS 9725 Alaska	EUG 00:56	PDX 01:40	12%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 3042 SkyWest	EUG 16:04	PDX 17:05	12%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 3006 SkyWest	EUG 12:45	PDX 13:46	12%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON