Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: QX 2132 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day QX 2132 EUG 07:00 → SAN 09:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2136 EUG 15:42 → SAN 18:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


QX 2132 Horizon	EUG 07:00	SAN 09:35	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
WN 556 Southwest	EUG 10:55	SAN 13:23	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
QX 2136 Horizon	EUG 15:42	SAN 18:25	29%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON