Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4128 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 4128 EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest QX 2194 EUG 19:23 → SEA 20:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4128 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 06:15	SEA 07:38	11%	4%	1.1%	94%
QX 2142 Horizon	EUG 06:13	SEA 07:32	12%	4%	2.1%	no record
OO 4002 SkyWest	EUG 12:29	SEA 13:48	20%	9%	1.1%	no record
QX 2177 Horizon	EUG 09:54	SEA 11:10	24%	7%	1.6%	no record
DL 4124 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 17:45	SEA 19:04	24%	8%	1.3%	91%worse than usual
OO 3013 SkyWest	EUG 14:55	SEA 16:14	25%	10%	1.1%	no record
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	EUG 13:43	SEA 14:59	31%	9%	1.6%	91%worse than usual
QX 2194 Horizon	EUG 19:23	SEA 20:39	33%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON