Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1898 at 12:55, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1898 Southwest	EUG 12:55	SJC 14:38	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254	6h 45m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	87%	75%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → SJC 15:51AS 521	6h 06m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	91%	71%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	3h 48m Seattle	SEA 10:56 → SJC 13:06AS 658	7h 06m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:39 → SLC 19:40DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	7h 00m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon	1h 56m Seattle	SEA 20:48 → SJC 23:01AS 403	5h 18m	97%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON